{"id": "od_007db9d14886", "question": "Will India win the women's T20 series against Zimbabwe 3‑0 by 2026-10-22?", "category": "sports", "asked_at": "2026-10-19T18:20:29+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-22", "p_yes": 0.961, "summary": "", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-20", "outcome": "yes", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFW9E90GVv4vmEb1j4Ui0qKMVJwgLFPRdEo020lL-1rLhdr6bJLypWR-pb_8Rlf1QVfskOULg-eW5PYL_dAjByDwtgUW2M7NdnhM_A8hV_D1d3ucD0tQyAE-ws1WIliMncx9QZBZAuq0NXkLR-zzq2lF78Jkuw50A==", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQF8VZTMesL275p4_3QutKwXMFqg3xlXdw0UtVTGLlQnHbhOp_cVOdeNSeH35UhLIx4wzMJ8-oGAZx_sGHRIPGbq0eVyk16jsq4YO-bSKxMRzFQ_STS7CDk6jj549bbENtkso69WTTUzrqHz8uvgww7uJS8ZE1LtN04FsplPKCLyaSXSeVPgkXZaueqiZSqNwzbHIvQ=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEX9a2arTuU9CqW_IvNPX-R82ECDGDjMuFuUWu_KciUROAvERzFqwxgKeWfEZ_DERI0UCDwFmm_TlxfI_wtjqBLzTKlJsYbMYlThlDq3aMuzFlCrafsPLXw6FhRI2dt9Txo24k-OxsVWaN6COs5KzHU52WNhXU4MA=="], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_8ba56a9e46f4", "question": "Will the RBI release the weekly foreign exchange inflow data for the swap facility covering the week ending 2026-10-21 by 2026-10-23?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-19T20:30:34+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "p_yes": 0.856, "summary": "The RBI typically releases weekly forex‑swap inflow data within a few days of the reporting week, often on the Monday or Tuesday following the end of the week. The most recent data point we have is from 2026‑10‑18, when the RBI reported $72.85 billion in inflows for the week ending 2026‑10‑19, indicating that the agency is already publishing figures for the prior week. Given the short window between the week ending 2", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-20", "outcome": "no", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFRZEz7iYGV8YP8R6Qob2XSLcJTFuQcmjO7_zrU42UaXhH8bb6_GfQddRIvd4FJPakyhYq9lTITIUykE91LeS1gb38QiWLPZW_EU-qh2HURZ84N5AXo33TMWy9AMHrl7qG3AcwxgK8bUwjurfAKFOXZ9d1-4I7xyvQwIg==", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGi0ppGrvqlpsVB9rpXhnYn3SFQ5mjdI1iUxD08ApIUywuQpBIoNI04v0dsOB4ASQbzx_uQnPBAyBuhaXB9k6X7ewTVTism2yBwOHA6jT0PqwvFzMkne5jrCKow9WmkLRZKHI9PQEDGVBhOeFUosiLvPN2j4BplZEiVzjUQwO0ZD7PZz_nOLgZrNJyWOo0KvNhislGYkI5cvn0oN64jvlo8GlZ3qv_9X3bYj_IjjGVQpCpwyaizbrvDDayShtH3gCkCacoCjO5CfG1_xsprilLG", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEBb_MsuU0WPJ1YnExecQtwCDM2YDxVDek_oJlUARNV_jPfR0kzvBB8rCaniyJgTeKZQyyVlzH2CCTRkqwSONv0Uy1xBC3GUQU_neAo3EJe075snd-1nVJ4tGJGWjmISfM3xedvJZ0e46qtHR2u4AJAhMYTyUtPDnhXezW4_iDQRYNdkR3mBmomGcJHS4kiVlKraLK-9ot5ZLiGor1f"], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_3c290dbea3a4", "question": "Will the BCCI announce the final squad for the India vs New Zealand T20I series on 2026-10-23?", "category": "sports", "asked_at": "2026-10-20T00:47:04+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "p_yes": 0.725, "summary": "The BCCI has already announced the ODI and Test squads for the India‑New Zealand tour on 16 October, and the T20 squad was listed in the 19 October schedule, indicating that the final T20 squad was likely finalized before the 23 October deadline. Typically, a squad is announced a few days before the first match, and the series starts on 25 October, leaving only a short window for any last‑minute changes. No evidence ", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-20", "outcome": "no", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFF6cGf8BVKBDww1_wr_KMZbI4itQDemqjrv_3NjItcPoyMqUwM8vNeLyITwGUzwVIbi7qsn2fln1Wq64B_SDjsrH12gcCuqszyGev4_nJ4VRJFFhfwOYzEgb5JY7of2xU6N2PnOXX4FTOX117sTgk33q7RlVglFt1XD60tTzYBTw4r6dPG1GuQ4xqkC7VAfyYVbmU=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEnseqDgmV7yf19a4rLcDouldhJvjdfXQJU-GrWBUsWkwHNCPaf3O8UVCfIEZE_gXKu5uAJOsBqNaw90f8j9g1_3EA49Yt1fvrBzuvc4pTMfOH6kuhxx39pJd_eCDKvHsAriLdVyzz2r1Jetn6Fkzduaq3Rg800pSAYP2WIhbpcIIOEwEki9C2ge_LsUGDuNkoLzDIlYUicML-Xb5AnXKOsFE3K75DbAaC7vv-y-HUDKz7yLNE5rym0KY29mwipPBJcBjvGKls=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQH1dDkdIq5Rvgaj0OWa36n5Gw1NVUdakf9RjTKqA8o2hZFyxhGB8QrP3PANS5ECaHLt2oEmmguqxORKt-PKzXXVziIcmhpd_OnApaEhGmIxDazy6tQ-R_42MBaPzs-Sc_ZrwQjonpuJx8Xrk6CUgnuOK59VbnsPsS7OWeokqM5bdPxyxRoyIvR1ziKV_WbwFfKYu1ZJU7FE3DLIP16LHg2mrWg_XgSeyEo-kcmumZ_f_M7O9aWL"], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_4b405497542c", "question": "Will Reliance’s Jio Platforms IPO be oversubscribed by more than 200 times on the final day (2026-10-21)?", "category": "business", "asked_at": "2026-10-20T06:03:35+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "p_yes": 0.716, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, only a few Indian mega‑IPOs have achieved >200‑times oversubscription on the final day, so the prior probability is low (≈5 %). Latest evidence: Multiple news items report record‑breaking anchor‑book bids of about ₹2.5 lakh crore and strong grey‑market premiums, indicating extremely high investor interest in Jio Platforms.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-21", "outcome": "no", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEYyic-FCy0KmJzLG5YUOyW4O4841I4wLlKgSDcHfDMq5BqofhBIIYPR-Rx6ufVfqqY164hXKMbp-vJ5VmG60IQ0uDgEArFXxJM5pnbUoS_Hn5fH-U3Ry-YMm7Bjwak489pRLW_pI3aLoDHjWK5wTCHF0UQdcsycXzJ_y0Zyd1xaluiSWWJdO_fF0IsHCir17fZ0fgbla07m_nnqwjxJJAJ1z9iZHVGJ4tR_BfS6QvvUJJG7y-MZM3d0QhRZdI=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGobGNY9nmgAeeV0nj7b5veMSe3FJb1oxAh0h9m8-fyMy8SDA4gk5OdIgPYI3D4CjdDzDqZHJjvg9ahgmrNXvK1uBFC5TJEd6c0XmWrsR4Ko03D3xqFSNB0dQAJzP0GwvVlBnuJnYaFIGF8n03_-wSuT8lDgUu5EK2fBOGUE_E=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGjQxWJssE5KvWCtsrwXD-xU_iYA8-f52_f4Ykf_Kn-ZZ9KyxWWbgLJRZCG5c4AiujQnDYKrflKDODYONrk13TNWcVdhEgR3NdVYTIQKJyT899ZSuhPYBWS9bm0Zc67YBbVaNWu1PSE3sNFAZuwWbUiPK3J3PAxlfdlyk2SQX9gm15edi8jf4HTKPwMRYYLRKZ7KWovB3BOjOl3m3fERvLVm7xd3mdRuFuo69aDg9d9SvW1uSAkOYSnSKPXlty5Qo4ZqcE9C5YrygXR2ZER-torNyY4BtE="], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_e7e19c09b7e8", "question": "Will Tonbo Imaging's Rs 852 crore IPO be listed on the NSE on 2026-10-21?", "category": "business", "asked_at": "2026-10-20T06:03:35+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "p_yes": 0.865, "summary": "Base rate: Historically about 70 % of Indian IPOs that close subscription are listed on the next trading day. Latest evidence: Tonbo Imaging’s Rs 852 crore IPO was heavily subscribed (≈140×) and there have been no reports of regulatory or procedural delays, suggesting a normal listing timeline.", "n_sources": 4, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-21", "outcome": "no", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEHWl5kz_EUXG9OfMNzCx-naldixHoYsPvEmBjglev9VwaMjVkKg4i0kNACQuGdMEXa7LnEZsqYsLPW8Jvc16TMrW2nzkLBdjFInt8BHMPVmUN3W0hoKiIq8b7aQGkg5wfpfe308eCcMgTcEXjRUswm81DYeiZakPeai6M1OlF_jc67HR301rhMItk9jRer739hDVRlRC982iFOsz-gL19r8yFLQ7cgpmGWI565KnBD_AyLa8j5jCITNitHShUy0QIsgEdwPFkz", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFSMPrNVi2Cg-V8G-HJp70Dejxk1iRjT6y6_6eUu9xkzXl5lk5q-4I_6rZgsdqdWVTX_WT2WjoL_k2-onmdIHxeduhr40ou40buP0JjHJZmWz7QjSDcM_l2olAToFZT9jXAnxYaVh62quZIqRbhcfFHDLU_FiQ5mz0j79RbWbmRrW3tLdPf9m7pxjCwewhtTwLs9TMytT53Ts1y6f-nep26N9eE5w8GtFeyqWxfepzBRyWElwyX9uNSuknft1nKbD6TV3hU02RPaewJuAZ9fkgZEKJIeKTrlpOFQ1nkKyrtWqDgA5rmXPX3E64YIi9RgnmEn3V7", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQErCgCr9Eq7uzpKVf1hi4fuLd6qV1FI1OylcPRsU3123-exhv1-EQKqJtu8zcGP9sbs777YY5eZnEbZuztjtKotzMIhPAEzmgROKaJ14bqJeQjxJrgTX4Ih_cngxCxGHuXuI0up6TTeiUVe4qHXJ0MOC6bDdc77a5-v"], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_bb5d32f4d4cf", "question": "Will U.S. Treasury yields fall below 3.5% for the 10‑year note after the housing data release on 2026-10-23?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-20T10:46:59+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "p_yes": 0.309, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield falls below 3.5 % only about 10 % of the time in the past decade, and it has been trending above that level in recent weeks. Latest evidence: Recent market commentary (Economic Times, 19 Oct) notes yields nudging higher on AI‑related equity strength, suggesting the 10‑year is still above 3.5 % heading into the housing data release.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-21", "outcome": "no", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQGS1gnhwGTNxSNquL_tRwfsjWFnoPM_FdwQR5ghuBKaKOZMhVZBVYtGIU5_5hiQZesYQsVlTEUqMRykMa-Z-eclM3exjnHWzBUu9pYFgjRaDR7ch41wFcULcbBR0Pb6fEbUtatZDYHBccqtcPrqh9ZY4OidWNhcMo7zvEkqewcdlfNdUsFrxgkG7DFteYe4MuYT8BdasZbGcqBNcJQ1HfbgHg==", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQE8GLyjt1NdJgDCP89RNnhsLcKfnJBhWa4Mibe4OJ6wUPhVaBq1sDi-k9RT22p4Qix7_Y2rGku7wrFxU-za1MVFMWtO91fK1-iT7mgueLGPT5LB4zTe4TlLShNNezGq2z4bSImMbLmCNcrlK08w5dsK8nOQ4_2WBUFS-73cx4JmVZ8YXdB81m56ETwwLfbOWd6anJZN-uiEZq3SkzkbX6_3u8XUlIm4hSBTZpsRQR8RHPWHLxERyQH1TFVRznU=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFtqwUcsBs_hsfNI8zW8orXWtfnb4WK3ZrIYqLAg83JTh6SIjF5fycSzrRPblifYyuFw_4rAWQnDeGjivUgQFq9b9c4Cr7Zvfkpqk8kHQTb6TwHC93-r48m2ILvDRK_jJVEuY9NxwRcdGioNvXCbj4="], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_0b1042dce15c", "question": "Will Prime Minister Modi’s Vijayadashami greeting be officially posted on the PMO website by 2026-10-23?", "category": "politics", "asked_at": "2026-10-20T22:47:02+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-23", "p_yes": 0.937, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, Prime Minister Modi’s festival greetings are posted on the PMO website within 1‑2 days of the announcement, giving a roughly 90 % chance they appear by the following Thursday. Latest evidence: Multiple news outlets reported that Modi issued his Vijayadashami greeting on 20 October 2026, which is the typical trigger for the PMO posting. What must still happen: The PMO needs to upload the greeting to its site before the end of 23 October 2026.", "n_sources": 4, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-21", "outcome": "no", "resolution_sources": ["https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFW2zyrDAFr1g5rHg8GQaqABnZkXpnJmPcavqrilTFu-HYPiKg_MEE-LifmGPpTOKe7FwSetomDkG2uoiyZpXfsJcvX4-ipFzTFDdiXhQQ6YP9HA4UkVgJIqDxibiX4xNAzUm8lPLE6ThkIUBytZunE1yxCrhaxVLUp7ZQPl19oXno-Nw==", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQFdVxBNZsU1vHo5gSJ6lxOK0s2G8H0knsecYDb57uz-MNWAlIZcq5ZvaDkFhJ2mVrv896aJhtRGmPeAJ9GAwMfuzFB0Iu4b9UvpFfl1By5tSVMN2kMJFSRNRUoi9pRHKO044F4B0GZwWArSW3RGl9dIl-hNz2Orqbb4rbcga2e3cf9FWPwNKnztBQqOS_UiEO81EqizE6UAK3kywowkkEOWxpKhhyf_270IXuMkZboESOqFUF6Ch0yMED9i06gy_7tHqSS84taezE0=", "https://vertexaisearch.cloud.google.com/grounding-api-redirect/AUZIYQEBFeJ96dPlTZstHUOLvpaOPXJ6aH7VVSIgKCRcAmCQ0jl5vm1vP7TWE5oQ1K89fuLqZIsZU2vg-pycwLjEAGU8uvKFCYvK4LQG32_zfd_i2RsAVC2QBkpCD8FQsdsn-_Pvj6eK6dJfImbUlmUgs4BkEIXZo_TiUCfIUcgRPtFcWJwNXdxt40JZYEhLRBA36pp5FrbA-CGjp9U="], "status": "resolved"}
{"id": "od_ce79f4885a5d", "question": "Will the United States and Iran reach a new agreement on enriched uranium by 2026-12-10?", "category": "world", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:57+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-10", "p_yes": 0.134, "summary": "Historically, the United States has succeeded in reaching new nuclear‑related agreements with Iran only about 10‑15 % of the time within a given two‑month window, given the deep mistrust and regional tensions. The latest reports (all dated 2026‑10‑21) indicate that Iran is firmly refusing to transfer any enriched uranium and is conditioning any talks on unmet demands, leaving the diplomatic track at an impasse.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_db827c879c1b", "question": "Will Nvidia ship its Vera Rubin plug‑and‑play racks to customers by 2026-11-15?", "category": "technology", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:57+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-15", "p_yes": 0.576, "summary": "Historically, Nvidia’s large‑scale AI hardware rollouts (e.g., DGX, H100 clusters) have often slipped past announced shipping windows, giving a modest base‑rate probability (~30‑40 %) that a brand‑new, complex system like the Vera Rubin plug‑and‑play racks would be in customers’ hands within a few weeks of announcement.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_dd38e6cad5d1", "question": "Will the Guardian’s report on AI‑generated music lead to a formal industry guideline release by the Music Publishers Association before 2026-12-01?", "category": "entertainment", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:57+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "p_yes": 0.164, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, the Music Publishers Association (MPA) has been slow to issue formal industry guidelines on emerging tech, with only occasional releases after prolonged industry pressure. Recent evidence shows a surge in AI‑related actions (e.g., YouTube Music adding AI labels, unions releasing AI guidelines for voice actors) but no specific mention of the Guardian’s AI‑music report prompting an MPA response.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_e04df90c3cbd", "question": "Will Eurozone bond yields exceed 4.0% again before 2026-12-15?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:57+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p_yes": 0.97, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, Eurozone 10‑year yields have been below 4 % for most of 2026, so a naïve chance of seeing them rise above 4 % again before mid‑December is modest (~30 %). Latest evidence: On 21 Oct 2026 French 10‑year yields were at 4.948 % – the highest in 23 years – and Eurozone borrowing costs are climbing amid fiscal‑stress concerns, indicating yields are already above 4 % and likely to stay there in the short term.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_f41f25b58dba", "question": "Will Vedanta’s share price rise above the 30‑day moving average after Hindustan Zinc’s Q2 results by 2026-11-20?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:57+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-20", "p_yes": 0.716, "summary": "Base‑rate: Historically, Vedanta’s share price moves roughly in line with its 30‑day moving average after major group earnings releases, with about a 55 % chance of closing above that average within a month. Latest evidence: Multiple analysts (e.g., Emkay Global) upgraded Vedanta to “Buy” with a ₹350 target after Hindustan Zinc’s strong Q2 results, and market commentary expects a positive reaction for the parent stock. This pushes the odds higher than the historical baseline.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_fcdc9be5d1aa", "question": "Will the Economic Times publish a follow‑up analysis questioning whether India’s 7.1% growth is sustainable by 2026-11-28?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T12:46:57+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-28", "p_yes": 0.687, "summary": "The baseline chance that any given newspaper publishes a follow‑up piece on a specific growth‑rate story within a month is modest, roughly 20‑30 %. The Economic Times has already run several pieces in late‑October flagging questions about the sustainability of India’s 7.1 % growth (e.g., the 2026‑10‑21 article “India’s economy stays resilient at 7.1 %, but rising inflation raises a red flag”).", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_03e2877da301", "question": "Will the RBI Monetary Policy Committee announce a rate hike at its meeting on 2026-11-10?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p_yes": 0.56, "summary": "Base rate: Without any new information, the chance of a RBI Monetary Policy Committee rate hike on 2026‑11‑10 is around 0.5. Latest evidence: Recent reports show the RBI lifted the repo rate to 5.50% in its October meeting and is facing higher inflation pressures from rising oil prices, but the central bank has also warned that it will weigh growth‑inflation dynamics carefully ahead of upcoming state elections, suggesting a more cautious stance.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_0454bfe29fe7", "question": "Will Elon Musk’s donation to Republican super‑PACs exceed $10 million by the filing deadline of 2026-12-01?", "category": "world", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "p_yes": 0.772, "summary": "Base‑rate: Historically, major tech CEOs who publicly back Republican causes have often contributed tens of millions, so a $10 million threshold is usually surpassed. The latest reporting (NDTV, citing the New York Times and a spokesperson for Musk’s super‑PAC) indicates Musk is already the biggest known donor to Republican super‑PACs for the 2026 midterms, implying contributions well above $10 million.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_086b9ea34379", "question": "Will the Supreme Court order releasing CJP leaders Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka be executed by 2026-11-28?", "category": "politics", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-28", "p_yes": 0.915, "summary": "Base‑rate: Supreme Court orders for release of detained activists are carried out in the overwhelming majority of cases (≈90 %). Latest evidence: On 21 Oct 2026 a court (SEM, acting under Supreme Court authority) ordered the release of CJP leaders Saurav Das and Ashutosh Ranka, and there have been no reported obstacles or appeals since.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_39d107cc0cf2", "question": "Will Iran’s nuclear facilities remain fully operational with no enriched uranium shipments after the statement by Mohsen Rezaei on 2026-10-31?", "category": "world", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p_yes": 0.848, "summary": "Base rate: Historically Iran has kept its nuclear facilities operational even while restricting uranium exports, so the default expectation is that the plants stay running. Latest evidence: Mohsen Rezaei’s public statements on 31 Oct 2026 emphatically rule out any shipment of enriched uranium abroad, indicating a policy focus on retaining material domestically rather than shutting down production.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_7259d4055ac2", "question": "Will Milma’s fake cash‑offer link case be closed with no further legal action by 2026-11-30?", "category": "business", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-30", "p_yes": 0.191, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, only about 30 % of newly filed fake‑link complaints are resolved without any further legal proceedings within a month‑plus timeframe. Latest evidence: The Milma case has just had a police complaint lodged and a request to remove the links; investigations are just beginning, so there is little indication it will be swiftly closed.", "n_sources": 4, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_99af39a45c23", "question": "Will the Kerala mushroom entrepreneur’s business exceed ₹1 billion in annual turnover by 2026-12-20?", "category": "business", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-20", "p_yes": 0.03, "summary": "The base‑rate chance that a regional mushroom farm in Kerala scales to a ₹1 billion‑a‑year operation is very low – only a few percent of such small‑scale agribusinesses ever hit that scale. The latest report (Mint, 2026‑10‑21) shows the entrepreneur’s firm is earning about ₹90 lakh per year, far short of the ₹1 billion target, and there is no evidence of a rapid expansion plan or major new contracts that would bridge the gap in the next two months.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_a3a6819690f4", "question": "Will Trump’s Truth Social traffic drop by at least 30% after the midterm election results are announced on 2026-11-08?", "category": "world", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-08", "p_yes": 0.891, "summary": "Base‑rate: Historically, platform traffic for niche political sites can swing sharply around elections, with roughly a 40 % chance of a ≥30 % drop after a major vote. Latest evidence: A SimilarWeb digital‑intelligence report (NDTV, 2026‑10‑21) already notes that Truth Social’s daily traffic has fallen more than 30 % over the past year leading up to the midterms, indicating the threshold has been met or is imminent.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_b14c3d294e77", "question": "Will the stray‑dog sterilisation centre in Belagavi become operational by 2026-11-25?", "category": "science", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-25", "p_yes": 0.28, "summary": "Historically, municipal stray‑dog sterilisation centres in Indian cities are only about one‑third likely to be fully operational within a month of being announced, due to construction, staffing and regulatory delays. The latest report (21 Oct 2026) says the Belagavi corporation has identified a one‑acre site in Savgaon but does not indicate that building or staffing is complete, so the centre still needs to be constructed, equipped and staffed before it can open.", "n_sources": 3, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_b69d54437918", "question": "Will Piyush Goyal complete his trade‑mission visits to Germany and the Netherlands by 2026-11-12?", "category": "politics", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-12", "p_yes": 0.811, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, Indian trade ministers complete scheduled European trade missions about 70 % of the time. Latest evidence: A Mint article on 2026‑10‑21 confirms that Piyush Goyal has a planned visit to Germany and the Netherlands in the coming weeks, with no reported obstacles or postponements. What must still happen: The trip must be carried out before 12 Nov 2026 without any diplomatic or logistical setbacks.", "n_sources": 8, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_cf9bd7fecfc7", "question": "Will Nomura upgrade its target price for Acme Solar above ₹1,200 by its research note dated 2026-11-20?", "category": "business", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-20", "p_yes": 0.103, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, analysts upgrade a stock’s target price to more than double the initial level in a short‑term window only about 5‑10 % of the time. Latest evidence: The only Nomura note we have (dated 2026‑10‑21) sets a target of ₹505 for Acme Solar, with no indication of an imminent revision and no subsequent news of a performance surge that would justify a jump to above ₹1,200.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_f0d393ebb807", "question": "Will the Jio IPO’s record of ₹2.5 lakh crore total subscription be officially confirmed by the stock exchanges on 2026-11-04?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-04", "p_yes": 0.302, "summary": "The historical base‑rate for Indian mega‑IPOs is that the stock exchanges publish the final subscription figures within a week‑to‑ten‑day window after the public offer closes, and they almost always confirm the headline “record” numbers when the issue is indeed the largest ever.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_f1d158c385a2", "question": "Will the RBI’s core sector growth figure for September 2026 be revised upward in the October‑December quarterly report released on 2026-12-05?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-05", "p_yes": 0.236, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, RBI only revises its core‑sector growth figures upward about 30 % of the time for a given month. Evidence: September 2026 core‑sector growth was reported at a robust 7.9 %, the fastest in the new series, and infrastructure output also surged, suggesting the initial estimate may have been conservative.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_f4c05f8421da", "question": "Will the firecracker godown blast in Vellore be officially attributed to negligence in the police report released by 2026-11-18?", "category": "world", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-18", "p_yes": 0.716, "summary": "Base rate: In India, firecracker storage explosions are frequently concluded to be due to negligence (≈70 % of cases). Latest evidence: The Hindu report notes the godown owner fled and special teams were formed, suggesting investigators suspect negligence, but the official police report dated 2026‑11‑18 has not been released yet.", "n_sources": 3, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_fbe51f1f64fc", "question": "Will SpaceX announce a partnership with Tesla in its earnings call on 2026-11-20?", "category": "technology", "asked_at": "2026-10-21T14:46:54+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-20", "p_yes": 0.486, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, major corporate partnership announcements on earnings calls are rare, giving a baseline probability of about 10 % that SpaceX would announce a new Tesla partnership on a specific future earnings call. Latest evidence: Recent news on 2026‑10‑21 shows intense speculation and even talk of a possible merger between SpaceX and Tesla, but no concrete partnership has been confirmed; the discussion is still at the exploratory stage.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "24ceaa278642", "question": "Will the first wicket in the 1st One Day International (ODI) cricket match between India and New Zealand on 2026-11-04 fall before the completion of the 9th over (i.e., during overs 1-9)?", "category": "sports", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:08:39+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-04", "p_yes": 0.65, "summary": "Historical ODI data shows the first wicket typically falls around the 7th over, and both teams have strong opening bowlers. This suggests a moderate‑high chance the wicket will come before the 10th over, though a solid opening partnership could push it later.", "n_sources": 25, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "be26c3129ddf", "question": "Will India's Core Sector growth for October 2026, as officially reported by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on 2026-11-20, exceed 7.0% year-on-year?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:10:49+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-20", "p_yes": 0.657, "summary": "September 2026 showed a strong 7.9% YoY rise, and the recent upward trend suggests October could stay above 7%, but lingering weakness in some components and typical month‑to‑month volatility keep the odds modest.", "n_sources": 41, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "74812806863a", "question": "Will Mumbai City FC win their Indian Super League match against Odisha FC on 2026-11-01?", "category": "sports", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:15:16+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-01", "p_yes": 0.03, "summary": "The fixture list shows Mumbai City FC playing Sporting Club Delhi on 2026‑11‑01, while the next Mumbai City vs Odisha FC meeting is scheduled for 2027‑01‑12. Therefore a win on the asked date is impossible.", "n_sources": 24, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "1577c67c1a54", "question": "Will the Republican Party secure a majority of seats in the U.S. House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections, with the outcome officially declared by November 4, 2026?", "category": "politics", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:17:24+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-04", "p_yes": 0.117, "summary": "The Republican Party is highly likely to secure a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Historically, the incumbent president's party, which is currently Republican, tends to lose seats in midterms, but the current political climate, marked by President Trump's low approval ratings, economic dissatisfaction, and an unpopular war, suggests a significant backlash against the incumbent party. However, the current Republican majority is very narrow, and the historical trend of the president's party losing seats, combined with widespread public desire for change, makes it probable that the Democrats will gain seats, potentially enough to flip the House.", "n_sources": 30, "model": "google/gemini-2.5-flash", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "079b7cea2a21", "question": "Will the Euro Area annual inflation rate for October 2026, as officially reported by Eurostat on or around 2026-11-18, be above 3.5%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:23:27+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-18", "p_yes": 0.764, "summary": "The Euro Area annual inflation rate has shown a recent upward trend, with the flash estimate for September 2026 reaching 3.8%. This acceleration is largely attributed to a significant increase in energy prices, which saw an 18.8% annual rate in September. While full-year forecasts from the ECB and IMF are lower (around 3.0% and 2.9% respectively), the recent monthly data indicates a strong upward momentum that suggests October's figure could remain above 3.5%.", "n_sources": 26, "model": "google/gemini-2.5-flash", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "3c325022ef5b", "question": "Will the US Employment Situation report for October 2026, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on 2026-11-06, show non-farm payrolls increased by more than 200,000?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:25:30+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "p_yes": 0.032, "summary": "Recent payroll data show a sharp slowdown, with September 2026 adding only 29,000 jobs and consensus forecasts for October 2026 around 56,000. Economic headwinds such as higher interest rates and persistent inflation further dampen hiring. Therefore the odds that the October 2026 report will show a gain of more than 200,000 are low.", "n_sources": 17, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "e40dde4bdbff", "question": "Will OPEC+ announce a change in crude oil production targets for December 2026 during their meeting scheduled for November 1, 2026?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:27:33+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-01", "p_yes": 0.7, "summary": "It is moderately likely that OPEC+ will announce a change in crude oil production targets for December 2026. The alliance has a history of adjusting targets based on market conditions, and current forecasts show significant discrepancies in demand outlooks between OPEC and the IEA, alongside ongoing geopolitical disruptions affecting actual production. While targets were maintained for November, the dynamic market situation suggests a potential adjustment for December.", "n_sources": 32, "model": "google/gemini-2.5-flash", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "8a22a44d6b12", "question": "Will China's Official Manufacturing PMI for October 2026, as released by the National Bureau of Statistics on 2026-10-31, be above 50.0?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-22T01:29:43+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-31", "p_yes": 0.732, "summary": "September’s PMI was 50.1, just above the expansion threshold, and recent data show continued strength in high‑tech and equipment manufacturing. With no strong contrary signals, the odds favor the October reading staying above 50.", "n_sources": 27, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-22", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "77729c26c2ba", "question": "Will the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) report a year-on-year increase in total vehicle retail sales for October 2026 that is strictly greater than 10% in its release on November 7, 2026?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:05:25+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "p_yes": 0.213, "summary": "Recent FADA data show strong month‑on‑month growth but a weakening base and a 6.5% YoY dip in Navratri sales. While dealer sentiment is positive, the consensus is that October 2026 will probably not achieve a >10% YoY rise, though a modest increase cannot be ruled out.", "n_sources": 34, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "68ad8fdc2c18", "question": "Will India's merchandise trade deficit for October 2026, as officially released by the Ministry of Commerce and Industry on November 15, 2026, be larger than $20 billion?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:08:28+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-15", "p_yes": 0.897, "summary": "Given recent monthly deficits of $26‑30 bn and October’s historical pattern of large deficits (27‑42 bn), the October 2026 merchandise trade deficit is very likely to exceed $20 bn.", "n_sources": 24, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "5eb1fe6f5dcd", "question": "Will the Gross Value Added (GVA) growth rate for the manufacturing sector in India, as reported in the Quarterly Bulletin of ASUSE for July-September 2026, released by MoSPI on November 21, 2026, be greater than 5.0%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:10:02+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-21", "p_yes": 0.504, "summary": "There is a modest probability that India's manufacturing GVA growth for July‑September 2026 will be above 5 %. Recent trends and the lack of strong stimulus suggest it is more likely to be below that threshold.", "n_sources": 0, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "a58b5e00bf6d", "question": "Will the Eurozone (Euro Area 21) Q3 2026 GDP growth rate, year-on-year (YoY), as reported in the Eurostat Preliminary Flash Estimate of GDP release on October 30, 2026, be above 0.7%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:11:25+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-10-30", "p_yes": 0.768, "summary": "Recent data show Q2 2026 growth at 1.2% YoY and most forecasts for 2026 annual growth cluster around 0.8‑0.9%. This suggests Q3 is likely to stay above the 0.7% threshold, though some downside risk remains.", "n_sources": 30, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "eb050f7a1bf7", "question": "Will OPEC+ decide at their meeting on November 1, 2026, to maintain the crude oil production levels set for November 2026 for the month of December 2026?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:13:14+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-01", "p_yes": 0.81, "summary": "Analysts and market observers expect OPEC+ to keep the crude‑oil output set for November unchanged for the December month, given the tight supply environment and ongoing geopolitical risks. The probability of a change is low but not negligible.", "n_sources": 38, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "d392edc98974", "question": "Will the S&P Global Eurozone Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for October 2026, scheduled for release on November 5, 2026, be reported as above 50.0?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:14:33+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-05", "p_yes": 0.869, "summary": "Forecasts from Investing.com (52.6) and Trading Economics (51.0) together with a September reading of 53.0 suggest the October 2026 Eurozone Services PMI will stay above the 50.0 expansion threshold. Historical patterns also show the services PMI remains above 50 in the majority of months.", "n_sources": 18, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "2eecde746f54", "question": "Will the US Non-Farm Payrolls report for October 2026, released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 6, 2026, show job gains exceeding 150,000?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:15:40+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "p_yes": 0.24, "summary": "Recent NFP data show a sharp slowdown, with September 2026 reporting only 29,000 jobs and forecasts for October around 60,000. While historically the U.S. posts >150k gains in roughly 70% of months, the current softening and tight monetary policy make a large gain unlikely.", "n_sources": 29, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "6541ef9d2f0e", "question": "Will Canada's employment change for October 2026, as released by Statistics Canada on November 6, 2026, show a net increase of more than 20,000 jobs?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:17:10+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-06", "p_yes": 0.159, "summary": "Recent monthly data show consecutive job losses in August and September 2026, with a year‑to‑date net loss. Economic headwinds such as U.S. tariffs, modest GDP growth, and a steady policy rate suggest that a large net gain in October is improbable.", "n_sources": 22, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "87b4faad6ee1", "question": "Will the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) year-on-year inflation rate for October 2026, as released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics on November 10, 2026, be below 3.7%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-23T01:18:35+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-10", "p_yes": 0.388, "summary": "September 2026 CPI was 3.7% YoY and forecasts for Q4 2026 hover around 3.6‑3.8%. Energy price volatility and a Fed rate path suggest modest upside, making a sub‑3.7% outcome less likely but still possible.", "n_sources": 33, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-23", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_3e0041c19be7", "question": "Will the National Medical Commission issue a final advisory on medical advertising by 2026-11-30?", "category": "science", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T00:46:10+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-30", "p_yes": 0.32, "summary": "The National Medical Commission has just released new advertising guidelines (see The Hindu Oct 23 2026), but they are still draft‑type rules and no “final advisory” has been announced. Historically, the NMC takes several weeks to a few months to convert draft guidelines into a formal advisory, and there is no reported deadline or statement that it will be completed by the end of November.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_43ebd54d636c", "question": "Will the AI‑powered heart imaging system at Mysuru hospital receive DCGI approval by 2026-12-01?", "category": "science", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T00:46:10+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-01", "p_yes": 0.38, "summary": "We don't have content but assume it mentions pending DCGI approval. Probably not yet approved. Base rate: many AI medical devices get approval within 6 months?", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_951cf0d4aa89", "question": "Will Neha Bora file an appeal to the Supreme Court against the Delhi High Court peace‑bond order by 2026-12-15?", "category": "politics", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T00:46:10+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p_yes": 0.78, "summary": "Base‑rate: Historically, about 60 % of activists whose lower‑court petitions are rejected go on to file a Supreme Court appeal within two months. Latest evidence: The Delhi High Court rejected Neha Bora’s plea on 23 Oct 2026, and she has publicly vowed to continue fighting the order, making an appeal the most probable next step. What must still happen: She must file a petition in the Supreme Court before the 15 Dec 2026 deadline; there is no reported filing yet.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_cd1336c5976f", "question": "Will Volvo Cars complete the announced 2,500 worldwide job cuts by 2026-12-15?", "category": "business", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T00:46:10+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-15", "p_yes": 0.32, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, large announced workforce reductions are only fully realized about 70 % of the time, with many firms lagging or scaling back. Latest evidence: Volvo Cars only announced the 2,500‑job cut plan on 23 Oct 2026; there are no reports of any cuts having been executed yet, and the deadline of 15 Dec 2026 leaves just under two months to implement the reductions.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "od_ef2fd39656e2", "question": "Will the civil servant charged with fraud be convicted by an Indian court by 2026-12-23?", "category": "politics", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T00:46:10+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-12-23", "p_yes": 0.32, "summary": "Base rate: Historically, about 60 % of fraud charges against Indian civil servants result in conviction, but many cases take months or years to reach a verdict. The latest evidence (BBC article on 2026‑10‑23) only reports that the civil servant has been charged and denied wrongdoing; no trial date or court schedule has been announced. For a conviction by 2026‑12‑23, a trial would have to start and conclude within the next two months, which has not been indicated.", "n_sources": 14, "model": "kala-odds (kala-1 + gpt-oss + qwen3)", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "ef6309cfa3c2", "question": "Will the year-on-year Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation for October 2026, as released by India's Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on November 12, 2026, be greater than 5.60%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:10:05+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-12", "p_yes": 0.818, "summary": "Recent CPI data shows September at 5.54% and RBI forecasts a peak of 6.0% for Q3 2026, suggesting October inflation is likely above 5.60%. Persistent food and fuel price pressures support this view.", "n_sources": 33, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "c0f75ced0ea3", "question": "Will the Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for October 2026, released by the Office of the Economic Adviser on Monday, November 16, 2026, show year-on-year inflation below 11.00%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:12:28+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p_yes": 0.088, "summary": "Recent September data showed 11.39% YoY inflation and expert forecasts (India Ratings & Research, ICRA) expect October to stay in double‑digits, even above 12%. This makes a sub‑11% outcome unlikely.", "n_sources": 34, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "743a1c384e17", "question": "Will 'Ramayana: Part 1' achieve a net box office collection in India exceeding ₹175 crore for its opening weekend (November 5-8, 2026), as reported by Box Office India?", "category": "entertainment", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:14:41+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-09", "p_yes": 0.405, "summary": "Advance bookings for 'Ramayana: Part 1' are around ₹8 crore gross, far below the ₹175 crore net target. The highest Indian opening weekend net in 2026 so far is ₹145 crore, and the film would need a massive surge to surpass ₹175 crore. Thus the probability of reaching that level is low.", "n_sources": 27, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "6fa35dfbd566", "question": "Will the Bollywood film 'Pratap', released on November 20, 2026, achieve a net opening day box office collection in India exceeding ₹5 crore, as reported by Box Office India?", "category": "Entertainment", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:16:55+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-21", "p_yes": 0.135, "summary": "Given the modest star power of Amit Sadh, the lack of a proven commercial director, and strong competition from big releases like Ramayana: Part 1 and Suryaa, the film ‘Pratap’ is unlikely to open above ₹5 crore. A small chance remains if the trailer generates unexpected buzz.", "n_sources": 25, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "c1c3dd1ae83d", "question": "Will Japan's first preliminary estimate of Q3 2026 GDP growth, released by the Cabinet Office on Monday, November 16, 2026, show an annualized real growth rate below 1.2%?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:19:15+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-16", "p_yes": 0.85, "summary": "Forecasts and recent economic data suggest Japan's Q3 2026 preliminary GDP estimate will be under the 1.2% annualized threshold. Most institutional projections point to growth around 0.5‑0.7% annualized, well below 1.2%.", "n_sources": 35, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "90ceb8ae1d0a", "question": "Will the US Census Bureau's Retail Sales report for October 2026, released on Tuesday, November 17, 2026, show a month-over-month increase in total retail sales (seasonally adjusted)?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:21:25+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-17", "p_yes": 0.676, "summary": "Recent data show retail sales rising 1.3% in August and 0.8% in September. Economic forecasts point to continued consumer spending into Q4. Given this momentum and a historical tendency for modest month‑over‑month gains, the odds favor an increase in October.", "n_sources": 31, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "590507525c0a", "question": "Will at least two drivers who are currently outside the top 10 in the relevant series standings finish on the podium (top 3) in the $50,000 Winged Sprint Car finale at the 2026 OnlyBulls Open Wheel Showdown on Saturday, November 7, 2026, in Las Vegas?", "category": "sports", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:26:06+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-07", "p_yes": 0.702, "summary": "The finale attracts a deep field, and historically big‑purse sprint‑car events see several surprise podium finishers. Given the recent season‑end standings and the mix of drivers entering the Las Vegas event, the odds favor at least two non‑top‑10 drivers making the top three.", "n_sources": 21, "model": "openai/gpt-oss-120b-maas", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}
{"id": "316e81334d5b", "question": "Will the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October 2026, released by the Institute for Supply Management on November 2, 2026, be above 50.0?", "category": "economy", "asked_at": "2026-10-24T01:28:43+00:00", "resolves_by": "2026-11-02", "p_yes": 0.955, "summary": "The ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in expansion for nine consecutive months, with the September 2026 reading at 54.5%. While cost pressures and rising interest rates pose headwinds, the overall trend, strong new orders, and positive industrial production figures suggest continued expansion. Prediction markets and economic forecasts also largely anticipate a reading above 50.0 for October.", "n_sources": 28, "model": "google/gemini-2.5-flash", "committed": "2026-10-24", "outcome": null, "resolution_sources": [], "status": "open"}